Rain, thunder tapers overnight
SATURDAY 2:15 A.M. UPDATE:
Rain and thunder continue along and east of the Ohio River but the risk for severe thunderstorms has ended in our area.
Flash flooding remains a concern, especially in southern Kentucky where another 2 inches+ of rain fell with a second round of storms.
Many trees were reported down in the region, with about 20,000 customers without power.
Many of these were in Kanawha, Boone, Lincoln and Logan counties from when a severe storm moved through around and just after midnight.
While a tornado warning was issued earlier for Elliott counties there are no reports, as of now, of damage.
A major tornado appears to have struck the communities of Somerset and London in southern Kentucky earlier in the night.
Sunshine returns Saturday but expect strong wind gusts over 40 mph to possibly cause more outage issues in some places throughout the day.
FRIDAY 7:30 P.M. UPDATE:
A Tornado Watch has been issued from the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center for areas west of I-77 through 3 a.m.
Even counties outside the watch should prepare for dangerous weather conditions later tonight.
Storms are expected to increase from 9 p.m. onward starting in Kentucky and Ohio and working into West Virginia.
Some storms can spawn tornadoes, 70+ mph winds and very large hail.
Make sure to have a way to receive warnings as some could be sleeping during the period of severe weather.
FRIDAY NOON UPDATE:
A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for southern West Virginia and Kentucky until 6 p.m.
In addition a flood watch is in effect for much of the area into late tonight.
At noon the strongest storms and instability to sustain storms is found across far southern Kentucky and West Virginia.
Further north general rain (nothing severe) is moving through the Huntington/Charleston corridor. These showers will keep the air cooler for the time being and limit severe weather.
However, further south, especially in the counties near the Virginia border, severe storms are likely through around 4 p.m. Large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado risk will be present with these storms.
Just about all of the area should see a break by 5 p.m. through at least sundown but we're still expecting a line of storms to develop near I-75 and move east into our area by late evening into the early overnight hours.
This line can produce damaging winds and perhaps spawn an isolated tornado as it crosses.
Summary: Main severe risk through sundown will be in southern Kentucky and West Virginia, with the rest of the region on watch for potential severe weather later tonight.
THURSDAY EVENING UPDATE:
A "cap" or warm layer of air aloft held firm today and kept spotty showers from exploding into thunderstorms. As a result we enjoyed a summer-like evening with quiet weather Thursday.
However, we're looking at a much more active Friday across the region, especially Friday night.
Overnight some storms in Ohio may sneak across our northern counties and around or just after sunrise some storms in Kentucky will impact our southern Viewing area.
Even at 8-10 a.m. Friday these storms can be strong enough to prompt some severe thunderstorm warnings and produce hail and strong winds.
This round, which won't impact everyone (Coalfields appear more likely to be hit), will move out by midday with another hot, muggy afternoon with a few quiet hours. However, the atmosphere will re-energize ahead a developing squall line Friday evening that will track east from the Cincinnati/Lexington area.
Ahead of it a few late afternoon individual storm cells may develop that could produce large hail and a tornado risk. The squall line itself looks to move across our area sometime between sundown to 3 a.m.
The Storm Prediction Center today upgraded all of us to an enhanced risk for severe weather, and notably indicated a 10% or greater risk for 75 mph wind gusts.
A typical severe thunderstorm produces 58 mph gusts, but Friday's activity will likely be warned with a "considerable" tag indicating 70 mph winds.
A couple of counties could even receive a rare "destructive" tag for 80 mph winds. If that happens in your location your phone will sound due to the wireless emergency alert system being triggered.
Tornadoes are also possible in this setup, especially for any storm cells that remain separate from the primary squall line.
Given the potential for widespread wind gusts of 60 to 80 mph the risk for many power outages is high.
While storms will exit early Saturday behind a cold front we expect winds to gust between 40 to 50 mph in the afternoon as the sun breaks out. Those gusts in and of themselves could create renewed outages and hamper power crews.
WEDNESDAY EVENING UPDATE:
A pesky cutoff low pressure system produced a few more scattered downpours on our Wednesday but far fewer than Tuesday and most passed through without much issue.
In fact, some areas were lucky enough to capture some great rainbow images, including at our studio in Charleston.
Unfortunately, the coming days will likely not be as gentle, with a strong low pressure system lifting up into the northern plains.
This will send a warm front through our area Thursday and can be the development of some scattered storms as it moves across from west to east during the day.
The most likely chance in the afternoon for some storms to develop will be near and east of I-77.
While storm development may be limited, any that can form can rapidly grow to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts.
Outside of those storms, though, many will experience a summer-like afternoon with temperatures soaring into the 80s. While we've reached these numbers back in April, the air then was very dry. Thursday will have much more humidity, making it feel every bit of 90 degrees.
It's that heat energy combined with strong wind energy south of the warm front that has us concerned for severe weather potential into Friday night.
We'll likely see a couple bouts of storms racing in from west to east, but the exact timing on these remains questionable. One forecast model suggests storms become widespread Thursday evening near sundown, but this will depend on whether a warm layer of air aloft (called a cap, which can inhibit storms) breaks down.
Stronger forcing will likely overcome that cap on Friday, with one round potentially roaring through before noon.
Behind that several dry, sunny and hot hours will follow before more severe storms arrive Friday evening or overnight.
This last round may be the most intense and widespread and will be ahead of the cold front that crosses before dawn on Saturday.
Storms could train long enough overnight for 1-3" of rainfall, resulting in a flash flood risk into early Saturday.
With all the wind and heat energy in this warm sector, any storms that develop Thursday afternoon through Friday night can be capable of producing very large hail (possibly tennis ball size or larger), 70+ mph winds and even an isolated tornado or two.
The Friday night activity is especially concerning since it could produce severe weather while many are asleep, so you'll want to make sure you have a way to get any warnings that are issued.
Be very alert to changing weather conditions over the next couple of days. The good news is that storms will exit early Saturday (possibly before sunrise) and aside from some gusty winds it will be a warm and pleasant weekend for outdoor events, including the Armed Forces Parade in South Charleston.
